Anti-Japanese Sentiments in China

Japan now finds its economic health tied to the rise of a potentially dangerous Chinese adversary. The Japanese economy is recovering, thanks in large part to Chinese markets.

A half-decade ago few understood how much Japan would gain from China's boom. Chinese manufacturers and consumers have been eager buyers of the machine tools, chipmaking equipment, cars, and consumer products that Japan excels at making. Last year two-way trade with China shot up 30.4%, to $132.4 billion, for the first time eclipsing import and export volumes with the U.S. (Link from June 2004)

But even as Japan’s recovery is mounted on the back of a growing China, the political relationship between the two countries continues to decline. Chinese leaders have called off visits to Japan to protest the Japanese Prime Minister’s continued visits to Yasukuni Shrine, repository of a number of Japanese war criminals. Japan and China are locked in conflict over islands and offshore natural gas resources. Chemical weapons left in China by the Japanese army continue to damage Japan-China relations. All of these issues are reflected in rising anti-Japanese sentiments among the general Chinese public:

All through the three group matches of the Asian Cup and the quarterfinal played Saturday against Jordan, the [Japanese] team was booed while Japanese fans were jeered and pelted with garbage. The hostility reflects growing anti-Japanese sentiment spurred by, among other things, repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Internet sites in China that target Japan for any number of injustices-past and present.

. . .Chongqing's history aside, a number of recent events have led to huge anti-Japan protests around China. These include the leaking of mustard gas abandoned by Japanese Imperial Army solders in Qiqihar, northern Heilongjiang province, in August 2003, causing one fatality.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Chinese nationalism is on the rise, and major Japanese companies doing business in China feel that sour relations with China are hurting business:

According to a survey of major Japanese companies doing business with China conducted by the French bank Credit Lyonnais in December, 80 percent of the 200 respondents said strained political relations are negatively affecting business.

Thus, while China’s growing strength is benefiting Japan in the short-term through new markets, there are troubling signs that these benefits may give way to future conflict.

Asia's rise is just beginning, and if the big regional powers can remain stable while improving their policies, rapid growth could continue for decades. Robust success, however, is inevitably accompanied by various stresses. The first and foremost of these will be relations among the region's major players. For example, China and Japan have never been powerful at the same time: for centuries, China was strong while Japan was impoverished, whereas for most of the last 200 years, Japan has been powerful and China weak. Having both powerful in the same era will be an unprecedented challenge.

The rise of China may one day produce more than mutual animosity and intensified competition over vital energy sources. As one Japanese commentator puts it:

I am deeply concerned that support at the grass-roots level for the current U.S.-Japan alliance has weakened conspicuously while the two countries have lost sight of their shared strategic goals. If the credibility of our alliance is undermined, more and more Japanese, including left wingers and liberals as well as young Japanese, will advocate Japan's cutting the alliance with the United States and taking its own approach in international politics. Once that happens, Japan's possession of nuclear weapons would be in sight.

I am strongly opposed to that idea because it alters the balance of power, raises tensions in East Asia and facilitates arms races. The alliance between the two countries is necessary for the stability of this region at a time when China has been aggressively building up its own military power.